Can the world economy continue to shrug off high oil prices?

HAD you been told in late 2001—not long after that September's terrorist attacks, and when stock markets had been tumbling for 18 months or so—that the price of crude oil would more than triple within four years, you might well have predicted global economic meltdown. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate has risen from $18 in November 2001 to record levels: it hit yet another new high, above $67, this week. This is similar in scale to the price jumps of 1973-74, 1978-80 and 1989-90, all of which were followed by worldwide recession and rising inflation. Today, though, global GDP growth is well above trend, while inflation remains low. Why has the world economy fared so comfortably this time?

世界经济还能后继续忽视高石油价格吗？

在2001年时你曾经是否被告知―在9.11恐怖袭击时间不久之后，并且那时股市已经动荡了18个月左右―在未来四年内原油价格将超过以前的三倍，你可能已经预测到全球经济将会停止发展脚步。在西部德克萨斯洲一桶普通油德价格从2001年11月的18美元涨到了一个新的历史记录：它是又一个新高，超过67美元，于本周。这种情况在标度上与1973-74, 1978-80 和1989-90价格的起伏相似，所有的价格波动随之而来的是世界范围的经济衰退以及高通货膨胀。虽然今天世界性的GDP有很好的增长趋势，而同时通货膨胀仍然很低。为什么这次世界经济费用如此不能让人接受？